Examining the Viability of the World’s Busiest Winter Road to Climate Change Using a Process-Based Lake Model

Abstract Winter roads play a vital role in linking communities and building economies the northern high latitudes. With these regions warming 2–3 times faster than global average, climate change threatens long-term viability of important seasonal transport routes. We examine how will impact world’s busiest heavy-haul winter road—the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Road (TCWR) Canada. The FLake freshwater lake model is used project ice thickness for at start TCWR—first using observational data, second modeled future scenarios corresponding varying rates ranging from 1.5° 4°C above preindustrial temperatures. Our results suggest that 2°C could be tipping point TCWR, requiring best costly adaptation worst alternative forms transportation. Containing more ambitious temperature target 1.5°C pledged 2016 Paris Agreement may only way keep TCWR viable—albeit with shortened annual operational season relative present. More widely, we show higher regional across much rest Arctic North America continental scale. This underlines importance continued efforts curb greenhouse gas emissions avoid many irreversible impacts change.